The report provides an in-depth analysis of conflict potential in Central Asia, from which it derives a peacebuilding strategy.
Although Central Asia has remained relatively peaceful in the years since the break-up of the Soviet Union, there is still a considerable potential for conflict in the region. The report focuses its attention on three states: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The regional context (Afghanistan) and the influence and interest of major powers (US, Russia and China) in the region are also taken into account, as are common regional factors like strict border regimes cutting through communities, the complex ethnic situation in the Ferghana valley, the drug trade and the threat of islamism.
The headline conclusion is that the central threat to stability lies not, as has long been thought, in ethnic rivalries or competition over resources, but rather in the relationship between the citizens and the state.
- Author(s):Anna Matveeva
- Date:February 2006