The Ukraine conflict and Eurasia – situation brief


The Ukraine conflict and Eurasia - situation brief

As a result of the Ukraine conflict, the wider Eurasia region is increasingly fragile, polarised and destabilised. Unless the international community acts quickly, the region could be pushed towards further instability and conflict.

This situation brief for the international community warns of five red flags of increased risk of violent conflict in the wider Eurasia region, triggered by the February 2022 Ukraine conflict.

  • Economic fallout in Central Asia increases the risk of conflict.
  • Violence could escalate in the Nagorny Karabakh context; civil society across the South Caucasus is challenged amid growing social and political polarisation; and peacebuilding in the region is becoming harder.
  • Patterns of sexual and gender-based violence from the Ukraine conflict and during the COVID-19 pandemic risk being replicated across the Eurasia region.
  • The remarkable humanitarian response in Ukraine could unwittingly harm prospects for breaking the long-term cycle of violence.
  • Moldova is operating under a state of emergency and risks being further destabilised.

The brief also offers recommendations of what can be done now to prevent conflict spreading across Eurasia – by Russia and Ukraine, the international community, and peacebuilders and civil society.