The path towards August 2022 elections in Kenya

With fewer than eight months until the 2022 general elections, politics in Kenya is at fever pitch. While competitive elections are a hallmark of democracy, Kenya’s elections have always been a flashpoint for conflict and violence. The country’s post-independence history is replete with recurring episodes of election-related violence, in which thousands of people have died and hundreds of thousands more have been internally displaced.

The elections in 1992, 1997, 2007, and 2017 were all marred with varying degrees of violence. Even when violence has remained low, as in 2002 and 2013, the political situation was very tense. There are growing fears that Kenya will once again plunge into chaos and violence in the run up to and after the 2022 elections unless Kenyans, both ordinary citizens and the political elite, come together to change the political situation.

This report is organised into two parts. Part one contains the peace and security analysis at both a generic national level and a specific regional level. Part two discusses the likely peace and security scenarios around the 2022 general elections and also provides recommendations on preventing and mitigating potential electoral conflict by different stakeholders.