War and identity

Conflict Alert 2018

The year 2017 was a turning point in the magnitude of violent conflict in the ARMM, amplified by the astonishing increase in conflict deaths due to the war in Marawi City and other places in Mindanao.

The eruption of a full-scale war in Marawi and its environs defied all expectations. It signified the rise of a strand of violent extremism and armed groups such as the Maute Group/Dawlah Islamiya and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters over the previous sub-national rebellions and their dominant actors, the Moro National Liberation Front and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

The fierceness and tenacity demonstrated by Daesh affiliated extremist groups and the absence of any clear sub-national political agenda were in stark contrast to the secessionist goals of their forebears.

How do we make sense of this new type of war? Is this the new normal and will there be spillovers in other areas of Mindanao and beyond?

Conflict Alert, the only sub-national conflict monitoring system in the Philippines developed by International Alert Philippines, shows in this report data and analysis on the incidents, causes, manifestations, actors, and costs of violent conflict in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao in 2017. The report also includes a long-view analysis of 7-year panel data on violent conflict from 2011-2017.

The Conflict Alert 2018 report highlights the threat of violent extremism, its origins and implications on the Bangsamoro peace process and in establishing long term security and development in the region.

By sharing this information, we hope to ensure more effective, timely and inclusive development and peacebuilding responses to violent conflict in the Philippines.