International Alert, in partnership with the Tyndall Centre [6] and the Department of International Development of the University of East Anglia [7], is leading a project on climate change and conflict in the Niger River Basin. This project, supported by USAID, focuses on Mali, Niger and Nigeria where we are working in partnership with local universities and research centres - Centre d’Appui a la Recherche et Formation [8] in Mali, University Abdou Moumouni Dioffo [9] in Niger, and University of Nigeria, Nsukka [10] in Nigeria.
The aim of this research project is to examine the links between environmental stress, climate change, human insecurity, conflict and adaptation at local, national and regional level and in different localities along the River Niger. We are thus working with water-stressed communities along the River Niger to better understand how climate variability interacts with conflict dynamics at the local level. At the same time, we are focused on understanding local, national and regional water management capacities and identifying sources of relevant social and institutional resilience. We believe this is an innovative piece of research, as there has been almost no analysis of these types of dynamics in respect of climate change at the local level in this region before.
After an initial review of the literature which reveals a number of mechanisms by which climate change may interact with water resources and lead to tensions or conflict and negative impacts on human security, we conducted field research in three specific locations along the river Niger. To achieve the research objective of understanding how the consequences of climate change and climate variability are interacting with societal, economic, political and other contextual factors to increase human insecurity and the risk of conflict, and identify ways in which adaptation can reduce this risk, we specifically looked at:
- Access to, allocation of and management of surface and ground water resources including river water, lakes and aquifers, in particular with respect to uncertainty in future supply due to climate change. The impacts of major infrastructure such as dams, irrigation schemes and water extraction for agricultural, urban, domestic and industrial needs such as displacement of communities and livelihoods, and downstream changes in supply;
- Flooding impacts, future risks of flooding and flood management;
- The impact of rainfall variability and climate change on rain-fed agricultural production and associated implications (such as displacement of pastoralists from customary areas).
We have recently finished the field research and are in the process of analysing the collected data. National events are being held in Bamako (Mali), Abuja and Lokoja (Nigeria) in July where local experts and research participants will be gathered to discuss the preliminary findings and provide feedback.
The findings of this research will then be used to inform a capacity-building initiative in this region, targeting institutions with responsibility for climate change adaptation.