Central Asia

International Alert's engagement in Central Asia has focused on carrying out a regional strategic peacebuilding assessment of the region, which was completed in early 2006. All too often international peacebuilding efforts lack coherence and coordination, and at the moment, this is the case in Central Asia. Our assessment aims to link local factors with a broader, more regional scenario, including not only the five republics but also Afghanistan, Russia, China's Xinjiang Province, Iran and the US.

The assessment begins with a conflict analysis – a systematic study that: Defines the profile of (potential) conflicts (political, economic and socio-cultural context and issues, conflict prone/affected areas, history of the conflict); Outlines the causes of conflict (structural and background causes, objectives and behaviour of those involved, potential triggers for conflict escalation and factors that influence how it is fought); Identifies the key actors (and their motivations, goals, positions, capacities, relationships); Recognises the dynamics between profile, causes and actors, thus allowing an assessment of possible developments and planning responses. The resulting report, Central Asia: A Strategic Framework for Peacebuilding, provides clear recommendations and practical advice to local governments and decision-makers, international donors and multilateral agencies, local and international NGOs, civil society representatives and community leaders on how to develop policy and programme strategies that address conflict-related risks and develop long-term and effective peacebuilding initiatives. You can download or order the report in English or in Russian.

The conflict context

After becoming independent in 1991, the five former Soviet Republics of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) embarked on a complex process of political, economic and social transition. They had a difficult legacy to deal with: totalitarian political systems, international isolation, overexploitation of natural resources and economic dependency have all made the transition process particularly hard. The situation is different in each country but – with the exception of Tajikistan – the transition from communism to capitalism has been peaceful. However, all the conditions for conflict exist and the relationship between state and society is often confrontational.

Economic conditions are harsh. Poverty has risen massively in the region since independence and economic decline has triggered considerable problems including illegal migration, drug trafficking, high rates of criminal activity and lower life expectancy. Combined with the lack of opportunities for political expression, this creates fertile ground for outbreaks of violence.

Natural resources are another source of tension. Water has been consistently overexploited and its management further complicated by strong competition for agricultural land, often across borders. Oil, gas and gold production have been an important factor in at least three of the five Central Asian Republics since the 1990s but, with underdeveloped infrastructures and high levels of corruption, this opportunity risks turning into lop-sided development – triggering waves of violence and unrest.

Some elements of democracy have been introduced (constitutions, division of powers, relatively regular elections, etc.) but most remain very weak. All five republics have, to various degrees, strong presidencies and so far only Kyrgyzstan has experienced a turbulent change of leadership; although the other states seeming even less prepared for a peaceful handover of power. Constitutions and laws are often not enforced and elections are neither free nor fair. The media are largely state-controlled. There was a short revival of mass political activity in the early 1990s but this has since been suppressed. The events following the 2005 elections in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are a chilling example of this.

Links

• For more on strategic peacebuilding, see our About Us pages
• For more about conflict analysis, order a copy of our Resource Pack for Conflict-Sensitive Approaches to Development, Humanitarian Assistance and Peacebulding
• For information on small arms proliferation in Central Asia, download our 2004 report, Small Arms Controls in Central Asia
  

For more information contact Cinta Depondt

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Last updated: December 2006